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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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Warning:
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Warning:
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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| File : [/include/libraries/tcpdf/class_tcpdf.php]
| Line: [191]
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
| File : [/include/libraries/tcpdf/class_tcpdf.php]
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
| File : [/include/libraries/tcpdf/class_tcpdf.php]
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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| File : [/include/functions_misc.php]
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
| File : [/include/functions_misc.php]
| Line: [950]
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| Number : [2]
| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
| File : [/include/functions_misc.php]
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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| Line: [950]
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/* = == == == == PHP ERROR MESSAGE == == == == = *\
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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| String : [date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected the timezone 'UTC' for now, but please set date.timezone to select your timezone.]
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الحرب في الجنوب (صورة عن قرب) - سوداني نت

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07:33 مساءً , الخميس 20 سبتمبر 2018

ضياء الدين بلال
بواسطة  ضياء الدين بلال

الحرب في الجنوب (صورة عن قرب)

زيادة حجم الخط مسح إنقاص حجم الخط
جلسة باحد الفنادق بالخرطوم.. الرواي القادم قبل ثلاثة أيام من ملكال، كان يروي قصصاً من العنف والفظاعات لا تخطر ببال بشر.
لا شخص أمن من الرصاص ولا مكان بعيد من أظافر الحرب، حتي المرضي في المستشفيات كانوا هدفاً سهلاً المنال للقتل والاغتصاب.
جثث الموتي علي الطرقات ، لا احد يحميها من مناقير الطيور ، واكثر الجثث احتوتها المقابر الجماعية (10 * 10) امتار، القتل علي الهوية القبلية، يعرفون بعضهم ولو في الظلام الجار يقتل جاره والزوج يقتل زوجته، والمليشيات تفتح تيرانها علي الجميع.
محدثنا الذي كان يدق بسبابته تربيزة الرخام قال إنه خلال ثلاثة أيام فقط فقد تسعة من أفراد أسرته الصغيرة. الرجل صاحب مقام سياسي في دولة الجنوب ويعرف الكثير من التفاصيل، ولديه كثير من المعلومات التي توفر له خلاصات تحليلية واضحة.
لأهمية الحديث، سأذكر لكم بعضاً مما أدلي به في تلك الجلسة المسائية من معلومات وتحليلات يؤخد منها ويُرد ويُظن:
الحرب متقلبة الأطوار. اليوم لصالح مشار. وغداً لصالح سلفاكير.
في هذه الغلبة لمشار: سيطر علي ملكال وهدد بور، واتجه إلي حقل فلج أكبر حقول البترول وأكثرها أهمية.
سلفاكير يملك الأسلحة الثقيلة ، ومشار يمتلك قوات مشاة ذات حماسة عالية في القتال ، ويسعي للسيطرة علي ملكال وبور، لاستقطاب مزيد من المقاتلين من المناطق المجاورة للمدينتين.
لولا اليوغنديون لكان سلفاكير قابلاً للسقوط. موسفيني بعد زيارته السرية لمواقع العمليات بدولة الجنوب، بدأ يفكر في الإنسحاب . تكاثفت عليه الضغوط الدولية وتآكلت الدولارات التي سحبها من بنوك جوبا، وارتفعت نسبة الخسائر وسط قواته.
الجبهة الثورية انحازت لسلفاكير بضغط من يوغندا ، وحصلت علي (300) سيارة لاندكروزر ، (200) منها تم استيرادها عبر رجل أعمال سوداني معروف ، و(100) عبر وسيط كيني.
ميلشيات الشلك التي كانت علي الحياد، بدات في الإنحياز الي سلفاكير، وحينما احتلت قوات مشار ملكال انسحبت ميليشيات الشلك للمنطقة الشرقية.
الإستوائيون بقيادة جيمس واني ايقا، كانوا الأقرب لسلفاكير، ولكن في الفترة الأخيرة خبا صوتهم وأصبحوا أقرب للحياد، مواقفهم تتغير مع تقلبات ميزان القوة.
أبناء أبيي رغم صلاتهم القبلية بسلفاكير لكنهم أقرب لمشار سياسياً رغم حيادهم العسكري.
كينيا وإثيوبيا قلقتان من الوجود اليوغندي في دولة الجنوب، وهما أقرب لتبني مجموعة الخيار الثالث، التي يقودها دينق ألور ومانيبي وجون لوك ومجموعة باقان المحتجزة في مباني جهاز الأمن في جوبا.
المجموعة الثالثة نأت بنفسها عن الحرب واحتفظت بموقفها المعارض لسلفاكير وهي الأقرب لأن تصبح بديلاً لطرفين في حال انتهاء الحرب عبر تدخل دولي وإقليمي.
السودان أكبر دولة في الإقليم قادرة علي تغيير موازين القوة في الجنوب لمصلحة أحد الطرفين بحكم الجغرافيا وعوامل أخري.
السودان لايزال علي الحياد في الظاهر ولكن مع استمرار الحرب سيصعب عليه البقاء طويلاً في هذا المقام وسيجد نفسه مضراً للانحياز لطرف وفق حسابات المصالح والمخاوف.

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